Gold Analysis on H4 Timeframe

Gold Analysis on H4 Timeframe – Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Perspective
By Rana Das, CEO & Founder of Forex Wave Expert

Current Price: $3240.12
RSI (14): 42.91 (Near Bearish Zone)

Technical Overview

Market Structure:
Gold was previously in a strong uptrend, reaching up to the 3474.40 level. After that, price dropped sharply and is now moving in a corrective range. This shows that the market is currently in a consolidation phase.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Immediate Resistance: 3261 – 3270
Immediate Support: 3218 – 3200
Major Support Zone: 3130 – 3100

RSI Analysis

The RSI is currently at 42.91, indicating bearish pressure in the market. However, it’s not yet in the oversold area. This means sellers are active, but the market still has room for a possible reversal.

Possible Trade Ideas

Sell Scenario

If the price moves up and gets rejected near the 3260–3270 resistance zone, a short (sell) entry can be considered.

Entry Zone: 3260–3270
Target: 3210 – 3175
Stop Loss: Above 3285

Buy Scenario

If the price does not break below 3210 and RSI shows divergence (price falling but RSI rising), a buy opportunity may appear.

Entry Zone: Near 3210 (with bullish confirmation)
Target: 3260 – 3300
Stop Loss: Below 3190

Elliott Wave and Fibonacci-Based Analysis

1. Elliott Wave Structure (Possible Outlook)

We can identify the following wave pattern on the H4 chart:

Wave 1: Price moved from 2960 to around 3130
Wave 2: Small correction down to 3050
Wave 3: Strong bullish move from 3050 to 3474 (major impulsive wave)
Wave 4: Current correction phase from 3474 to around 3240
Wave 5: Yet to begin or might start if price breaks above 3260–3300

Currently, we are likely inside Wave 4 correction. If price finds support near 3210 and bounces, Wave 5 may begin with an upward movement.

2. Fibonacci Analysis (Wave 3 to Wave 4 Correction)

Wave 3 Top: Around 3474
Current Correction (Wave 4): Reached down to 3240–3210

Fibonacci retracement levels from Wave 3:

38.2% Level ≈ 3250
50% Level ≈ 3212
61.8% Level ≈ 3174

Right now, the price is inside the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci zone, a possible support area from where Wave 5 could start.

Trade Idea Based on Elliott Wave + Fibonacci

Buy Setup (Expecting Wave 5)

Entry Zone: 3210–3240 (Fibonacci 50% area)
Stop Loss: Below 3185 (below 61.8% retracement)
Target: 3350 – 3450 (potential Wave 5 range)

Conclusion

Gold is currently in a corrective Wave 4 phase.
The Fibonacci retracement zone (3210–3240) is a strong support area.
RSI shows weakness but not yet oversold – price might bounce back from support.
If price holds above 3210, Wave 5 may begin, possibly pushing gold to new highs.