Gold FOMC today comes down to one question: will XAUUSD keep holding the strong demand area that sent it up from 3980 yesterday? Gold trades near 4045, and our view stays bullish while that base holds. The Fed decision is due at 18:00 GMT and the press conference follows at 18:30 GMT. Expect quick moves in both directions.
Gold Today at a Glance
- Gold price: near 4045, slightly lower today after rising about 1% on Tuesday.
- Main news: a hold is widely expected, but December hike bets, higher oil prices and a firm dollar could keep gold under pressure.
- FWE bias: bullish above the daily demand area, but careful into the Fed. Below the 3975 low the view is off.
Gold FOMC Today: XAUUSD Chart Analysis
Gold has reached daily demand, with weekly demand in the same area. Yesterday price started climbing from the 3980 area during the London session, and the daily candle closed bullish. Gold is still trading inside today’s candle, so the daily picture is neither confirmed nor broken.
On the lower timeframes, price broke out of a one hour zone yesterday. We’re watching for a retest of that zone and a bounce. The H2 demand zone at 4030-4038, just under price, is where that retest would show.
We see two possible routes higher. In the first, gold bounces straight off the H2 demand zone and runs to the H2 supply area at 4105-4120, roughly 60 dollars above price. In the second, gold dips into the H4 order block at 3990-4010 first and then rallies to the same supply area. Both recovery paths follow the drop from the triangle breakdown on 22 October, which ended at the 3975 low.
The danger is the previous low. A break of 3975-3980 would end the bullish view, and the 3960 level would come into focus next.
What Is Driving Gold Today
The Fed. Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and suggested another increase could come before year end. A hold is widely expected today. Gold may react more to the Fed’s guidance on December than to the decision itself. CME FedWatch data put a hold near 90% and a December hike near 80%, and Danske Bank expects two or three dissenting votes in favour of a hike.
Dollar and yields. The US Dollar Index is near 102.3, its highest since mid October, and the 10 year Treasury yield sits around 5.0%. A firm dollar can limit gold’s bounce. Falling yields did not prevent last week’s selloff, so yields alone do not explain gold’s moves.
Oil and inflation. Brent is near 114 and WTI near 100 to 102. Renewed oil strength has kept inflation concerns in focus, and US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September.
Seasonality. Seasonality offers some support, but it is not a reason to buy ahead of the Fed.
How the Fed Decision Could Move Gold: Three Scenarios
Will gold go up after FOMC?
Nobody knows before the statement. A hold is already priced, so gold will react to the tone. A softer tone favours a rise toward 4105-4120, and a hawkish tone favours a drop through the 4030-4038 demand zone. The first reaction to the release is often reversed within minutes.
Hawkish: hike signals and dissents
Watch for two or more votes for a hike, a statement that stresses more tightening, or Warsh calling a December hike likely. With oil high and the dollar firm, gold could cut through the H2 demand zone and fall to the H4 order block at 3990-4010. That is our second path, and it can still end in a rally if buyers defend the block. A 2 hour close below 3975-3980 cancels the bullish view.
As expected: hold with a balanced tone
If the Fed holds and leaves December open, gold could whipsaw without finding a clear direction. A spike down into the demand zone, then a rotation toward 4070, is one possibility. Waiting may help avoid getting caught in the first swings.
Dovish: less urgency on hikes
A less hawkish message could ease December hike bets, yields and the dollar. Gold could then reject the demand zone and push through 4070 toward 4105-4120. A sustained close above 4120 would be the first real sign that the daily recovery has more room to run. Some market reports list 4160 and 4180 as the next upside targets.
Gold Support and Resistance Today
| Level | Price | Source | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| H2 supply area | 4105-4120 | FWE chart | Target of both FWE paths. Sellers may return here. |
| Resistance zone | 4079-4100 | Market data | Market resistance below the FWE supply area. |
| This week’s high | about 4070 | Market data | First hurdle for the bounce. It also sits in the earlier FWE swing zone of 4070-4100. |
| H2 demand zone | 4030-4038 | FWE chart | Where buyers must show up for path one. |
| H4 order block | 3990-4010 | FWE chart | Dip area for path two. |
| Previous low | 3975-3980 | FWE chart and team note | A break ends the bullish view. |
| Horizontal level | 3960 | FWE chart | Last line before deeper downside is in play. |
Zone prices are read off the chart, so treat them as close estimates.
What Changed Since Yesterday
In yesterday’s gold analysis, we expected a dip below 3960 before a rebound. The dip never came. Gold held above the 3975 low, rose through the 4024-4033 zone and touched about 4070 in Asia today, just under the upper zone at 4074-4091. The rebound idea worked and the sweep lower failed, so our focus has moved from the 15 minute chart to the H2 and daily zones. The 3960 level still matters, but it is now a second line of defence.
The earlier swing view also stays in place: sellers may return around 4070-4100. A strong rejection there would be a warning, even with the daily demand zone intact.
How to Handle Gold Around the Fed Decision
Spreads widen and price can spike both ways around the release. Stops can slip well past their level. Today, risk control matters more than the direction call.
- Cut your position size, or stay flat until the press conference has started and the first few 15 minute candles have settled.
- Do not chase the first spike. Wait for price to reach a marked zone and show a reaction.
- If you trade the bullish view, keep the stop beyond the 3975 low and size the trade so the loss stays small. Our lot size guide shows how.
- If this is your first Fed day, read the plan for trading gold during FOMC.
Taking a prop firm challenge? Check your firm’s news rules before the decision. Some firms restrict trades around high impact news, and a breach can cost you the account. Our prop firm news trading rules guide explains what to look for.
What to Watch After the Fed
On Thursday the US releases the advance Q3 GDP estimate and, separately, September’s monthly PCE inflation data. Both can move December hike odds again. The ECB also decides on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan follows on Friday. US midterm elections come on 3 November. After the Fed, we’ll reassess whether buyers defended demand and cleared 4070.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Fed raise rates today?
A hold is widely expected, with rates staying at 3.75% to 4.00%. The bigger question is what the Fed says about December. A surprise hike today would be a shock, and gold could move sharply on it.
Is it safe to trade gold during FOMC?
It is risky. Spreads widen, price spikes both ways and stops can slip. Many traders reduce size or wait until the press conference has settled. Never risk more than you planned just because the move looks big.
How does the Fed decision affect the gold price?
Higher rate expectations usually lift the dollar and yields, which can pressure gold. A softer tone does the opposite. When a hold is already priced, the press conference tone and any hint about a December hike matter more.
What data comes after the Fed decision this week?
Thursday brings the advance Q3 GDP estimate and September’s monthly PCE inflation release. The ECB decides on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan follows on Friday. Any of these can move gold again after the Fed.
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Trading gold and other CFDs carries a high risk of loss, and Fed days make price move fast with wider spreads and slippage. This analysis is an opinion about probabilities, not a signal or financial advice. Only risk money you can afford to lose.
Editorial Note: The charts and technical analysis in this post are prepared by the ForexWaveExpert (FWE) trading team. Every post is reviewed, fact-checked and corrected by Rana Das, Founder & CEO of ForexWaveExpert, a gold trader with 15+ years of experience in Elliott Wave and Price Action and winner of the Fastbull Best Mentor Award 2024. This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
